Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Dream Shard Speculation


Dream shard prices are crazy low. Demand is irrationally low. I use my usual strategy of selling a full stack and then individual shards as well, and I only sold one. The expansion is still very new, so the economy has a lot of stabilizing yet to do. But surely the enchanters on my realm needed more than one dream shard from me. Small shards aren’t much better. So everyone that took the strategy I’ve been preaching for the last week or so is sitting around with a crap load of shards they can’t sell at a decent price. I’ve bought 20,000g worth of armor/weapons to disenchant, with about half of that being Northrend gear. I am about back to even with tons and tons of inventory to still go through. My return on investment last week was over 100% and I expect the same for this week, but these dang shards are piling up.

I’m not worried about it at all though. In fact I think it is very good. I’ve been buying up other people’s dirt cheap dream shards for 10g a piece. I am going to be plowing as much gold as I can into them. There are so many uses for these shards. I can’t imagine these low prices being an equilibrium level.

As a side note, what the crap is up with the abyss shards? The droprate for high level wrath items is 1% according to enchantrix, but I haven’t gotten one yet. I know someone has because there were four of them on the auction house for 500g a pop.




5 comments:

Gevlon said...

I'm unsure about Dream shard. This is the list of items created from it:
http://www.wowhead.com/?item=34052#reagent-for

Mostly high-end enchants which have weaker but still good alternatives.

They are also used for purchasing recipes, but that's not a great market.

Buy them only if you expect that Blizzard will implement some new enchant, or a new "Void Shatter", that turns it into Greater Cosmic Essence or such.

Anonymous said...

I'm also unsure to be honest, I have the same issue of large stocks of dream shard building up, cosmic and infinite dust are selling beautifully though. I think that the main glut of these items on the market is because of so many blue armour items being on the tradeskill levelling path for LW, Tailoring and BS. Once these people have finished off their levelling, the prices of things like saronite gloves will end up more around the cost they are to make (rather than the crazy low prices at present). I'm wary of overstocking on dream shard though, I still have over 150 large prismatics to sell from an old gamble on those rising in value. If they dont sell, I'll just buy up recipies for my encahnter with them.

Cuthbert said...

There are far fewer uses for the shards as of now, than it's counterpart in the BC. I think this will change, and even if it doesn't it is still hard to believe that these shards are really worth so little. We'll see though. There certainly is a chance for a firesale in the future.

DougE said...

I'd say pick up the dream shards on the cheap now to buy the enchants you need later.

Turtlehead said...

Look at the list Gevlon linked. I'd say it's even worse than his evaluation: half those enchants are useless novelty stuff. The prismatics held value because a) they were used in a zillion enchants, and b) more importantly they were used in the bread & butter enchants (+40 spell damage, etc). Stable long term with explosions when there was any gear reset.

These are not comparable items. What's the market? People leveling enchanting without leveling the character or another crafting prof. Maybe. I'm not buying into that.

If Blizzard does add a shatter mechanic it would be a direct result of the items being unused and overstocked, same as it was for voids and green quality gems. So they'll have to be dogs to become swans. Erm. No, that's not right. Stupid metaphors!